2000m for the 3yos on Caulfield Cup day, and what a huge day of racing we have. Prospect of rain, rail in the true, big fields throughout. Think it might be a day for mid field horses with races on a softer track under their belt. Very tough job, but you wouldn’t think the Course would let it get to a Good 3 again, and hopefully some irrigation if the forecast changes. This race looks to have little speed, and many of these runners running well from back in the field, and many stepping out for the first time at this distance at Caulfield. Could create a bit of a log jam early to the first bend and for a 3yo that can cause havoc. Really like the look of Albarado in this race, and Zahra just feels trustworthy in a race like this. He looks to mid field, wind up early and really get rolling a while out. Celestial Sol the odds runner from the ratings, not long ago there were very high expectations of him. That’s what Waller does. The other strong chances are Cetchwayo if the run on horses are favoured, and an even track will see Let’s Karaka Deel have an advantage up front. I’m sticking with Albarado to give chase to Let’s Karaka Deel, with Waller’s Celestial Sol the value. The first few races will show us where you need to be to win. Hope you can get your day off to a good start, hit the board while you can!
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | Celestial Sol | Looks like he will get on pace, and on his previous runs he might have just needed further. High expectations on him from markets in previous races, and might be better suited to this trip at Caulfield. Value runner of the race. |
| 2 | Albarado | Stable is going well at the moment, and this colt rates very strongly for this race. Zahra always controls the youngins well, and a very enticing record with give in the ground. Expecting to see him in the finish, just needs to stay in touch early and not get too far back. |
| 3 | The Pres | Cannot get his last start out of my head, was like a blooper real. With clear running this guy could do anything, but just not sure about the step up in trip and a predicted soft track. Will need to give more in the run to be a chance. |
| 5 | Cetshwayo | Jamie Kah getting it done at the moment, and the data suggests on previous runs that this guy will fall out the back early and make a charge a long way out. Decent acceleration to have every chance late. |
| 6 | Trodaire | Looks to pump out an even time, but a big step up in class and trip. Will need some speed early to get galloping room. |
| 7 | El Santo | Might jump OK, but there might be a few horses that want to mid field and that might cause issues. Looks to run an even time to the line, but no real data support to feature in this race. |
| 8 | Redwood Shadow | Stable going very well, and the data points to a big run on performance. Just might get a bit far back in the run, but does go well on a softer track. The more the rain, the better his chances are to swoop. |
| 9 | Hit The Shot | Looks to shuffle back early, but might be able to hold a soft spot mid field from the draw. Good acceleration to adjust to the changes in speed, and if the mid fielders are peeling off the fence earlier in the day, then this guys will get his chance. |
| 10 | Let’s Karaka Deel | Looks to get out well and land on pace, and the race the race is predicted should be an easy time up front. John Allen chose this horse, and won on a soft ground before. Should be in the finish. |
| 11 | Tour Of Duty | The back marker of the race, with a huge turn of foot. First time at Caulfield and might just need a longer straight for a better chance to wind up. Still, could fly home. |
| 12 | Mr Roger | Data says he will jump to lead, and try to hang on for dear life. The turn for home might be a bit tough. |
| 13 | Token Spirit |
Lane on board, and looks to be jump out well. Data suggests that he will be caught around the turn, but if its an easy time up front his chances will increase. Not completely out of it. |