Love the distance races at HQ, and what better when they are early in the day. A moderate tempo predicted for this race, which is made interesting with most of the field sitting on the bottom weight. Most of these runners wouldn’t be used to this weight in a larger field, so looking for the experienced riders to give their horses an edge. The Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT) shows that Coffey is at 45.5% to place from the middle of the field at this distance. Looking at Saunter Boy as huge value in this race, and the stable prepares horses very well for these races. Not surprisingly, South Pacific from the same stable has a strong chance also. The other interesting runner is Smokin Pierro for Michelle Payne. Strong Statfreaks ratings to jump well and stay on pace throughout the race. Good luck
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | Haky | Class horse of the race, just has to beat the weight. The data predicts that he will stay the trip but will struggle to meet the speed later in the race. |
| 2 | South Pacific | Motor Kah on a class runner of the race. Great turn of foot, just looks to fall away a bit late. Will need a soft pace, and if he is stretched early it might be a tough final 200m. Still, should be in the finish. |
| 3 | Norway | Not great form fist up, and even then this race looks tough for him. Looks to be up on pace early, but might fail to have an impact when it gets serious. |
| 4 | Saunter Boy | Winning form, top stable, well weighted, distance specialist. Coffey at a 45.5% strike rate to place from this position over this trip on the JAT. Could surprise here, value runner of the race. |
| 5 | Fanciful Toff | Solid performer deep into his prep. Looks to be up on pace and grind out and even time. Should hang in there late. |
| 6 | Master Chum | Lane rated the top jockey in this race, but it looks like his mount will be strung out in the early stages of this race. Might be in danger of being pinned on the fence from the draw, and on the JAT Lane is only 9% to win from back there. Will need luck to win. |
| 7 | Significance | Looks the leader, but the data predicts that he won’t have much left at the top of the straight. |
| 8 | Desert Path | Have to respect the stable, but hasn’t fired recently. The data predicts that he will struggle to make an impact at any stage of this race. |
| 9 | Exoteric | Big step up here, and not much support from the KPIs |
| 10 | Vividredsky | Looks to be one of the barnstormers, but will need a decent pace on. Not the worst in the field, and if it pans out can ruffle some feathers late. |
| 11 | Smokin’ Pierro | Top rated barrier and looks to get the gun run on pace. Has a turn of foot to match. Placed her before. Value. |
| 12 | St Arnicca | Top turn of foot and decent recent form at these trips. Just needs to hold a good spot from the draw to run a good race. |