Better horses and better riders beginning to surface as we approach the warmer months. Interesting race for the mares at Flemington, where a number of senior riders on data supported horses have a clear advantage over the rest of this field. No early speed, and strong Stat Freaks Ratings (SFR) for a number of runners coming from out wide. From the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). we focus in on Lane on Night Passage (25% win and 60% place), Jamie Kah on Mrs Sippy (14% win and 57% place) and Zahra on Quintello (12%win and 35% place). Really like the look of Night Passage here, finished her last prep well and should produce a decent time here. Predicting Lane to have the gun run and pull her out for a gut buster first up. Quintello is the obvious class of the race and might just be too good, but has to beat the draw also. Mrs Sippy has strong ratings late, but hard to know where she will land in the run. The other eye catcher is a runner at odds in Starlight Scope, that can run well if she can latch onto the better chances to her inside. Sticking with Night Passage for the McEvoys and the Adelaide form, at a decent quote.
Top 4
- Night Passage
- Quintello
- Mrs Sippy
- Starlight Scope
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | Threeood | Drawn well to be prominent, but racing pattern is to fall back. Data says she can finish the race well, but at the weights this race might not be suitable. |
| 2 | Night Passage | Quality horse that finished off her last prep well in Adelaide. Not the worst record fresh, but most telling is D Lane who is 25% to win and a whopping 60% to place when off pace at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). She will mid field from the draw, and make an early dance for the line. Big chance. Value. |
| 3 | Quintello | Proven performer in a top rated stable, with a well rated rider. Big drop in class in this race, and should see her working into the race as they turn for home. Just needs to land in a good spot from a rough draw. |
| 4 | Zimowy | The data says she can get into the race in the later stages, but with the class of this field the first sections will be tough. |
| 6 | Defiant Diva | Could be an awkward draw if she gets squeezed back, but can’t knock winning form. Doesn’t appear to have strong acceleration, so would be a super effort to prevail at this grade. Still, honest. |
| 7 | Moscow Red | No early speed to note, and not much other data support. Hope she gets around the track OK. |
| 8 | Starlight Scope | Difficult draw to cross the field and get on pace, but on times she can match it in the class. Well weighted here, and at the price looks worth some interest. |
| 9 | Mrs Sippy | Drawn to get an easy mid field sit, and Motor Kah ranks well in this race as you would expect. Top turn of foot in the race, so just needs to keep in touch to the 400m. Can fly home late and gobble a few up. |
| 10 | Star Of Eden | Looks the obvious leader, and does go OK first up. The data suggests she will find it tough in the later stages of the race at this grade. But if she gets an easy lead, chance. |
| 11 | Indented Head | Strong jockey and trainer combo at the minute, and she does have a strong turn of foot. Most other KPIs suggest she will find this race too hard early. |