Great race for the Queen Elizabeth, with a clash of good form on short backup against lighter, raced targeters. Four standouts on the SFR, so we narrow our focus to these runners, and the obvious form leader is Jaameh finishing 2 lengths off third in the Melbourne Cup. He should also settle just off an average pace, and fly home through the 400 and 200 marks. The strongest turn of foot over a Flemington 2000m can’t be ignored. The danger is Libran and Casterton who both have a strong turn of foot but may get too far back and the slower speed may tilt the tables to the on pacers. Besides, the Waller and Weir show need to throw one to Lindsay Park every now and then to keep it interesting. 7 days? That’s why they give you odds.

Jaameh to win.

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Some very telling data in a tight MacKinnon field. A fast pace is likely to disadvantage the leaders and maybe a trap for fools. Settling midfield is where we will find the two stand our horses in this race. “Blair House” and “It’s Somewhat” lob in a good spot, improve their cause from the 400 to the 200, and most telling is the stand out turn of foot for the pair ahead of the rest of the field. We loved Shillelagh last week but might be a grand final replay. We know, It Somewhat has last us down recently, but this is probably his race that presents no excuses at all – except this blog. Let’s not ignore the obvious, and let’s have a peg at the stumps after we take a catch.

Blair House to win and It’s Somewhat to place.

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