Big fields and wet tracks across the country today, and most of the day at Flemington looks like a dart board. Quality distance races should throw up less surprises. With strong field quality and average tempo, every horse should have their chance. Focusing in on two runners in particular here in Brawl and Kaituku. Kaituku should take up the running, can control the race from the front, and can run a very good time. The only risk is being chased down late, which is where we come to Brawl. Childs is 38% to place when mid field over distance races on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT), and the horse has the turn of foot to cause some problems late. Big jump in grade for him, but he will be fit and ready to go for this race. Interesting numbers for Taramansur and Reflect the Stars to run well, but leaning towards Brawl to be too strong for Kaituku late. Quinella looks promising.
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | Taramansour | Class stayer, and drawn well to sit off the speed and get a nice run in transit. Top turn of foot in the race, and this is his trip. Should be fitter this start, and can’t see him running badly. |
| 2 | Queen Takes King | First time for the WA mare on the big stage, and she is certainly comfortable at the distance. It’s a huge class jump on previous starts, but she might have improved a bit from Warrnambool and the stable does rate well in this race. Would need a lot to go right to feature. |
| 3 | Royal Crown | One of a few that will try to fly home late, but will need some sort of pressure up front. A few preps back he was flying, but seems to not have found that form again. Would be a super effort to feature here. |
| 4 | Accountability | Difficult draw to fall back from, and could be pinned the fence. Does have good speed from the top of the straight but might need luck. Expect him to run well but not sure his pattern will suit. |
| 5 | Eureka Street | Have to respect the old boy, but has never really enjoyed Flemington. Should land on pace and keep up in transit. Data suggests the final stages of the race might prove though. |
| 6 | Brawl | Looks to settle mid field, and Childs is 38% to place when mid field over distance races on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Reasonable turn of foot to get into the race, and can pump out a solid time. A good chance to chance down Kaituku at a nice price. |
| 7 | Pesto | Decent turn of foot, and McNeil rates best in this race. Coming from the rear a bit of a different proposition though, and bit of a class jump for the horse. Should run well, just need to keep in touch with the front half of the field. |
| 8 | Reflect The Stars | Doesn’t rate too badly and Thornton is in the top few ranked riders in this race. Will get back in the run, but a good chance to make an early run for it and she can rattle home at a decent speed. Value. |
| 9 | Young Hostess | Hard to knock winning form, especially at odds. However not much data support for her at this grade. |
| 10 | Algiers | Should get out of the gates Ok and settle up front. Can keep a decent pace. But with a weaker turn of foot in this race, the later stages look tough. |
| 11 | Kaituku | Rated very well and got it done last start, and looks very strong in this race again. Should be able to lead and control the race up front, and can grind out a decent time. Surely in the finish. |
| 12 | Monreal | Wary of a decent stable making a trip for a distance race. No data support at all for this guy, but he will be fitter for the runs on the tracks up there. |