What a great day of racing at HQ, and a wide open race for the Kewney Stakes over a mile for the fillies. The data narrows the field down to five runners in Argentia, Yearning, Lavish Girl, Barb Raider and Arkita. Many of these fillies met recently with Lavish Girl getting the favours on the rail, and there is nothing to suggest she can’t do it again. Should lead, top turn of foot, and Melham is a huge 53% to win when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Interesting numbers for Yearning, a proven performer at this grade and the mile. Expect to see her getting into the race late, and just needs a few favours navigating from further back in the field. Argentia the obvious class runner in the race, and no reason she can’t run well here. She might just open up at the top of the straight with a superior speed and get to the line unchallenged. Last year, favourites only had a 21% win strike rate at the Flemington mile. Sticking with Yearning, and Lavish Girl the value.
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | Yearning | Big drop in weight (as with many of these), and this is her trip. Have seen her do it before, and the data suggests that she will hit her straps after the turn for home and have a decent acceleration to the line. Drawn well to choose a spot, should be in the finish and can pinch it. |
| 2 | Lavish Girl | Beat this field last start, and no reason she can’t do it again. Should lead, top turn of foot, and Melham is 53% to win when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Had favours last start, but might expect some improvement. Value runner of the race. |
| 3 | Barb Raider | Loves Flemington, great win last start, but bit of a tougher field here. Should position mid field, and has a turn of foot to go deep into the race. Expect to see her in the finish. |
| 4 | Argentia | Class runner who is back, and had little chance last start. She can mid field and grind out a time, and should be a better chance at Flemington. Well rated gate, well rated stable, surely runs well. |
| 5 | Biscayne Bay | Looks like she will fall out the back early. Could make some sort of run for it late, and have to respect the stable and rider. Would need a perfect run. |
| 6 | Mokulua | Not a heap of data support for this filly. Looks to be stretched from the jump. |
| 7 | Stray | Obviously made the trip down for a reason, and has shown some ability to finish races well. Not sure about the first time at Flemington at this grade, but might be able to get into the running in the later stages. |
| 9 | Arktika | The horse obviously has some ability, but a huge jump in class here and first time at HQ. Early gate speed from a good draw, and will be interesting to see how she goes at the mile. Should be there abouts. |
| 10 | Hardly Sweet | Top rated gate and might be able to hold a spot midfield. Looks like a tough race late for her though. |
| 11 | So You See | Second start so hard to know how to interpret the data. Doesn’t look like she will stack up in this field, but with improvement off a good time last start – who knows? |