MOONEE VALLEY – 2050m – RACE 4
Will be a tough day at the Valley, and the rail back to its “True” position should favor the on pacers early in the day and probably give the leaders the box seat at the bend. Solid rating for the last start winner over the same trip at the valley, Trap for Fools. He should get out well and should get a soft lead on an average tempo. Brad Rawiller is too good in a strategy race like this to blow this horse away too early and should pack them up for a dance down the hill.
The SLB is the indicator here, with a 2.0 length advantage and a robust quality field rating, given in the top four for the day, this horse’s name is the only danger. Trap for Fools to win.
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MOONEE VALLEY – 1600m – RACE 8
Feature event, and many opinions on Nights Watch against Hartnell. Interesting data on Bonneval showing daylight to 3rd on the SLB should settle inside Hartnell off the speed and Reggie may elect to take the trail and be led into the race. If there is one thing we know about Murray Baker, it’s that this horse will be right. She flies home, doesn’t mind the Valley and goes well fresh. With a pack that may not be looking to lead over the mile, the rush for home could be on early. By race 8, the rail advantage may weaken, and the Barnstormers have a better chance. With the best turn of foot in the race, Bonneval is the value at current pricing.
The trick would be that she doesn’t get too far back, and if she is in striking distance, it will be a horse race. Bonneval each way.
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