Moonee Valley Race 1
Great to be back at the Valley, and what better way to start the day than a tight field over the famous trip. No real speed predicted in the race, and every horse should have their chance. A few runners over from Adelaide, and the data sharpens the focus on two runners in particular here in D’Aguilar and Not Usual Glorious. D’Arguilar was very well rated last start but the race just didn’t suit him. Different story here today where he can use his turn of foot and should have an easier middle section in a weaker field. Not Usual Glorious maps nicely out of the straight in this race, with Oliver racking up a win 33% of the time when leading at this trip on the Jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). It could be these two in a pair throughout the race. The dangers are the Waller runner Mohican Heights mounting an attack from the rear, and Prince of Helena that must have made the trip for a reason. Sticking with the two with the strongest Stat Freaks Rating (SFR), and D’Aguilar being too strong for Not Usual Glorious.
Top 4
- D’Aguilar
- Not Usual Glorious
- Mohican Heights
- Prince of Helena
Good Luck
Westy
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POSITION IN RUN MAP
RUNNER COMMENTRY
| NO | NAME | COMMENT |
| 1 | D’aguilar | Gave this guy a big chance last start, and just got a stitch after having to do all the work. Very different race today, more suitable track and his turn of foot rates better in the field. Should be fit for this and the one to catch. |
| 2 | Not Usual Glorious | Well into his prep, but drawn well and the rider and stable rates well. The telling stat for this runner is Oliver racking up a win 33% of the time when leading at this trip on the jockey Analysis Tool (JAT). Drawn to do no work out of the straight, cushy transit, surely in the finish. |
| 3 | Mohican Heights | Always cautious of Waller distance runners, and no exception here. Can pump a very strong time, and no disgrace last start at a big price. The only knock is taking up the running at he rear on a soft pace, and how much time he will need to wind up. Will be storming late. |
| 4 | Prince Of Helena | Had a good look at this guy last start in Adelaide, and he is racing very well. Seems to travel better when he is leading, which he will have every chance to do in this race if he wants. Top turn of foot in the race, so just needs an easy middle section to be right in the thick of it. Made the trip for a reason expect to see him on the podium. |
| 5 | Somerset Maugham | Top rated rider in the race in Williams, and the horse has run well this prep, albeit at lesser grade. Just looks that he will shuffle back a bit, and might not have the zip around this track to trouble them late. |
| 6 | Mr Pickwick | Hard to knock winning form for the youngest in the field, but a jump in grade. Has a decent turn of foot on previous runs, but a tighter track might switch him in running a bit, and even at the weights it would be a massive effort to win. |